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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 8:30:50 GMT 1
Todays racing comes form Exeter (NH), Pontefract, Kempton (AW) and over in Ireland, Limerick
NAPS
KEMPTON 2.20 Mrs Mop - dr4arms
PONTEFRACT 4.10 Changing The Guard (EW) - thedon 2nd 5/2 4.10 Changing The Guard - bucks 2nd 5/2
EXETER 3.00 Sir Kezbaah - degs74 WON 5/1 3.30 Vamizi - redcgull 4.30 Oca De Thaix - ffctom_b 2nd 6/5
LIMERICK 5.45 Orpens Peach - lameduck
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 9:08:13 GMT 1
Morning mate,
Mrs Mop 2.20
Silly question here, what is fast ground? Is it when its dry?
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 9:12:10 GMT 1
sure is mate , usually firm , horses that like a bit a give in the ground will not be suited by fast ground
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Post by ffctom_b on Apr 5, 2011 9:18:50 GMT 1
Morning All
Will be back with some picks later
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 9:18:51 GMT 1
Cheers mate As I say i'm still learning. Some of the things I read on here i'm not totally sure about, but i'll keep plugging away Good luck today and nice one for putting the effort in on this website, very informative
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Post by thedon on Apr 5, 2011 9:20:46 GMT 1
Degs, when you are looking at the distances what metrics do you look at and what do you put most importance on?
Will be on with the over / unders later on.
Nap is Changing the Guard e/w in the 16.10 at Ponte.
Good luck everyone
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 9:26:09 GMT 1
Look at historical meetings for each course where the going is the same as the day betting on , thats higest priority , then for flat meetings most important criteria for me is then race distance, so then you can get an average winning distance for 5F, 6F , 7F etc. For NH also split distances into 3 categories , Chase, Hurdle , NH (ie flat)
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 9:32:04 GMT 1
Read into this what you want but read an interview with the Tony McCoy the other day and in Grand National week he wasn't prepared to take any uneccessary risks, so evey horse he will be riding in Grand National week beofre Aintree has a good chance of winning. He has 3 rides at Exeter today.
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Post by thedon on Apr 5, 2011 9:39:20 GMT 1
Cheers Degs, thats interesting. Where is the best place for the historic course info? ATR?
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 9:44:26 GMT 1
Jump trainers in form with runners today : C Longsdon Exeter 2.30, 4.00 P Nicholls Exeter 2.30, 5.00, 5.30 P Hobbs Exeter 3.00, 4.00, 5.00, 5.30 D Pipe Exeter 2.30, 3.30 N Henderson Exeter 5.00
Jump trainers in form with runners today : D Elsworth Exeter 5.30 AP McCoy Exeter 3.30, 5.00, 5.30 A Glassonbury Exeter 3.30
Flat trainers in form with runners today : JJ Quinn Pontefract 2.10, 4.10, 5.10 C Cox Kempton 2.50, 5.20 M Bell Kempton 2.50, 3.50 & Pontefract 4.40 K Ryan Pontefract 2.10, 3.10 R Fahey Pontefract 3.10, 3.40, 4.10 Kempton 3.20 R Hannon Kempton 2.20, 2.50, 3.50 D Arbuthnot Kempton 4.20, 4.50 P Cole Pontefract 3.10, 4.40 E Dunlop Kempton 3.50
Flat jockeys in form with runners today : J Doyle Kempton 4.20 P Makin Pontefract 2.10, 3.10, 4.40 T Queally Pontefract 5.10 P Hanagan Pontefract 2.10, 3.10, 3.40, 4.10, 4.40, 5.10 J Spencer Pontefract 3.10, 3.40, 4.10 H Turner Kempton 2.50, 3.50, 4.50
Exeter High strike rate trainers P Nicholls 2.30, 5.00, 5.30 E Lavelle 3.30, 5.30 V Dartnall 2.30, 3.00, 3.30, 4.00, 5.30
Exeter High strike rate jockeys R Johnson 3.00, 3.30, 4.00, 5.00, 5.30
Pontefract Draw - 5 & 6F – Low best
Pontefract High strike rate trainers B Hills 2.40, 4.40
Pontefract High strike rate jockeys R Hills 2.40, 3.10 P Robinson 4.10, 4.40 F Tylicki 2.10, 3.40, 4.10 K Fallon 2.10, 2.40, 3.10, 4.40
C&D winners (placed in 2/3 of races or more) Chevise 3.20 Kempton (4 runs) Lundy Sky 2.30 Exeter (2 runs) Quality Art 3.20 Kempton (2 runs) Vito Volterra 2.10 Pontefract (3 runs) Dan Buoy 3.40 Pontefract (6 runs) Kavaloti 4.50 Kempton (7 runs)
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 9:45:04 GMT 1
thedon , I use Sporting Life and use their full results search by course
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 9:59:53 GMT 1
Read into this what you want but read an interview with the Tony McCoy the other day and in Grand National week he wasn't prepared to take any uneccessary risks, so evey horse he will be riding in Grand National week beofre Aintree has a good chance of winning. He has 3 rides at Exeter today. Why would that be Degs? Does he mean he would ride the horse to get it to win ASAP and a sclean as poss to not risk falling or something? Last daft question, at least for today
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Post by redcgull on Apr 5, 2011 10:08:57 GMT 1
Morning gents... i hope we are all well and good today...
Just checking the cards now, will be back to post later...
Degs - i read that about AP. I just think that if the race gets into a battle, he wont push it just in case he falls. Also if he has a horse that will win that race by a country mile, so again no risk attached, he will take that... Interesting all the same though...
Cheers...
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 10:09:17 GMT 1
Degs,
Just checking the races with Tony McCoy in them and in the 3.30, Rate Of Knots isn't running
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 10:14:16 GMT 1
Morning redcgull,
Interesting thoughts
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 10:17:24 GMT 1
I took it read that it he is only going to accept a ride on a horse if it feels it is going to win or at least have a chance to win , why risk fall and injury on a 'no-hoper' then miss the National?
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 10:21:16 GMT 1
Nap for me today is 3.20 Kempton Quality Art
go with rest of win lucky 15 2.30 Exeter Vincitore 3.50 Kempton Zanoubiatta 4.40 Pontefract Ziraun
One small stakes EW today 4.50 Kempton Coda Agency
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 10:22:32 GMT 1
I took it read that it he is only going to accept a ride on a horse if it feels it is going to win or at least have a chance to win , why risk fall and injury on a 'no-hoper' then miss the National? Thats true Im going for Dan Buoy in the 3.40 e w as well, what do you think of this one?
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 10:32:42 GMT 1
Dan Buoy has a chance , loves it round the course , I feel that has too much weight to carry to actually win
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Post by thedon on Apr 5, 2011 10:41:34 GMT 1
Winning distances today chaps:
Kempton (7 races) - 9.5/10.5 L Pontefract (7 races) - 11.6/13.1 L Exeter (7 races) - 39.5/43.5 L
Degs / Dee what do you reckon on those?
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 10:42:13 GMT 1
Yeah I read he is 10lb heavier, may well place though
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 10:50:39 GMT 1
thedon
Here is what I have predicted
Kempton - 9 Lenghts Pontefract - 11.5 Lengths Exeter - 49 Lengths
Not much to play with IMO
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 10:55:15 GMT 1
dr4arms
Its up to you mate , but at 13/2 odds are for me too short for EW, say you put £5 EW on, total stake £10, and it places, you will win £8.13 plus your £5 stake back , total of £13.13, risk for me is too much to gain example of £3.13, in a 15 runner handicap so anly will pay out first 3 , but dont let me put you off, go for it if you think it has a chance
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Post by dr4arms on Apr 5, 2011 11:17:05 GMT 1
dr4arms Its up to you mate , but at 13/2 odds are for me too short for EW, say you put £5 EW on, total stake £10, and it places, you will win £8.13 plus your £5 stake back , total of £13.13, risk for me is too much to gain example of £3.13, in a 15 runner handicap so anly will pay out first 3 , but dont let me put you off, go for it if you think it has a chance I know what you're saying mate, im not making a huge amount. I dont mind little bits of £'s here and there to try to build up and I do feel more confident with ew as obviously it stands more of a chance (as I havent got any ability to be confident of picking out right winners) and at least i'd be getting something back. But if it doesnt place im receiving a double blow obviously with my two stakes! Thanks for the advice though, much appreciated
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eez
New Member
Posts: 43
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Post by eez on Apr 5, 2011 11:28:53 GMT 1
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Post by thedon on Apr 5, 2011 11:35:22 GMT 1
My thoughts too Degs, not much interest in those. Exeter looks like a competitive card and cant se too many big wins there otherwise would be tempted for a small buy.
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Post by redcgull on Apr 5, 2011 11:45:12 GMT 1
Morning gents... Nothing really jumps out at me today, but some interesting races never the less... But for consideration today...
3.30 Exeter - Vamizi, 5/1 nap. A stayer that has a decent record at this course, and on current form good will be good enough to take this...
3.00 Exeter - Sir Kezbaah 5/1 4.10 Pontefract - Ingleby Spirit, 7/1 4.20 Kempton - Cape Melody, 4/1
A few others as the day passes by... Good luck to all today...
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Post by bucks on Apr 5, 2011 11:55:51 GMT 1
Morning all, first of all had a tip for Zanoubiatta 3.50 Kempton, got the 2/1 this morning but think best price now is 13/8, make of that what you will. Back in a bit with my selections.
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Post by degs74 on Apr 5, 2011 11:57:17 GMT 1
thanks for that bucks , Zanoubiatta is one my selections for today , that you had a tip for it make me a bit more confident, and I got 9/4 this morning
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Post by ffctom_b on Apr 5, 2011 11:59:55 GMT 1
Degs, your nap a non runner mate
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